Q.. What are the emerging trends in global equity markets?
The Indian financial system has undergone structural transformation over the past decade. The financial sector has acquired strength, efficiency and stability by the combined effect of competition, regulatory measures, and policy environment. While competition, consolidation and convergence have been recognized as the key drivers of the banking sector in the coming years, consolidation of the domestic banking system in both public and private sectors is being combined with gradual enhancement of the presence of foreign banks in a calibrated manner. There has been improvement in banks’ capital position and asset quality as reflected in the overall increase in their capital adequacy ratio and declining NPLs, respectively. Significant improvement in various parameters of efficiency, especially intermediation costs, suggests that competition in the banking industry has intensified. The efficiency of various segments of the financial system also increased. The major challenges facing the banking sector are the judicious deployment of funds and the management of revenues and costs. Concurrently, the issues of corporate governance and appropriate disclosures for enhancing market discipline have received increased attention for ensuring transparency and greater accountability. Financial sector supervision is increasingly becoming risk based with the emphasis on quality of risk management and adequacy of risk containment. Consolidation, competition and risk management are no doubt critical to the future of Indian banking, but governance and financial inclusion have also emerged as the key issues for the Indian financial system. The capital market in India has become efficient and modern over the years. It has also become much safer. However, some of the issues would need to be addressed. Corporate governance needs to be strengthened. Retail investors continue to remain away from the market. The private corporate debt market continues to lag behind the equity segment.
Several current trends will continue to influence the world’s financial markets long after the present bout of turbulence ends.
Struggling credit markets, slumping stocks, and a sliding dollar have been generating anxiety among executives and policy makers in early 2008. Amid the turmoil, it’s easy to forget that long-term structural change in the world’s capital markets will probably prove more important than short-term fluctuations, as it did after the 1987 US stock market crash, the 1992 assault on the British pound, and the 1997 unraveling of Asia’s financial markets.
Recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) research highlights several trends that look set to continue during the years ahead, long after the present bout of market turbulence has ended:
the continued growth and deepening of global capital markets as investors pour more money into equities, debt securities, bank deposits, and other assets around the world
the soaring growth of financial markets in emerging economies and the growing ties between financial markets in developed and developing countries
the shift of financial weight in Asia from Japan toward China and other fast-growing emerging markets
the growing financial clout of the eurozone countries and the significance of the euro
the burgeoning role of oil-rich Middle Eastern countries as suppliers of capital to the world, along with the rise of new financial hubs in the Middle East to complement the rapidly growing hubs in London and Asia
While these trends reflect a shift in financial power from the United States toward other parts of the world, the sheer size and depth of the US market will give it a leading role on the international financial stage for years to come.1
The exhibits that follow track the progress of these long-term shifts. The research rests on several proprietary MGI databases that cover the financial assets, cross-border capital flows, and foreign investments of more than 100 countries since 1990. Most of the analysis focuses on developments through 2006, the most recent year for which comprehensive data are available. But some data also show that many of the broad trends continued through late 2007 and will probably persist in years to come.
The continued growth of global financial assets
The full fallout from the credit market volatility of 2007 remains to be seen. But over the longer term, the volume of global financial assets (the value of all bank deposits, government debt securities, corporate debt securities, and equity securities) will continue to expand. Over the past 25 years, through stable and stormy times alike, financial assets have grown robustly. In 2006, their value rose to $167 trillion, from $142 trillion the year before—a 17 percent increase, more than double the average annual growth rate (8 percent) from 1995 through 2005.2
For many years, as equity and bond markets thrived, bank deposits have accounted for a shrinking share of total financial assets. That trend continued in 2006, but the rate of decline slowed because the absolute value of bank deposits around the world jumped by $5.6 trillion—twice the average increase of the previous three years.3 The largest contributor to this rise was the United States, thanks largely to strong income growth and the housing boom, which enabled many households to tap their home equity for quick cash. This source of growth was shaky by 2007. Looking forward, the growth of deposits will depend to a large degree on China, where they are the primary savings vehicle.
Growing cross-border investment links financial markets
The rising level of foreign investment is making the world more financially inter-dependent than it was even a few years ago. By the end of 2006, the outstanding stock of cross-border investments reached the highest level, in real terms, in history—$74.5 trillion of assets. This sum includes the foreign investments of multinational corporations, purchases of foreign debt and equity securities by investors around the world, and foreign lending and deposits. Preliminary data indicate that the total grew to another record level in 2007, despite the disruptions in European and US credit markets during the second half of the year.
What’s more, the source and direction of cross-border investment flows are shifting. In 1999, the United States was the dominant hub of the global financial system. By 2006, it remained the largest single foreign investor and a major hub in global capital markets—but the eurozone countries together had as many financial links with other parts of the world, including emerging markets. The United Kingdom too has become a more significant global financial hub, and Middle Eastern countries are now major investors in global financial markets, thanks to the windfall generated by rising oil prices. In 2006, for the first time since the 1970s, the oil-exporting countries joined those of East Asia as the world’s largest net suppliers of capital.
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